Maniema Union 2–0 Bouenguidi: Result & Stats

Maniema Union

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bouenguidi

K. Kalowa 40'

M. Mbabu 12'

9/19/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Joseph Kabila Kabange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maniema Union53%

×Draw27%

Bouenguidi20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maniema UnionExpected goals in this matchBouenguidi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.75

Maniema Union

1.42

Bouenguidi

0.75

Maniema Union creates 89% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

1.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Maniema Union

1.50

Bouenguidi

0.33

allows per match

Maniema Union

1.17

Bouenguidi

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

Bouenguidi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw

80%

Maniema Union or Bouenguidi

73%

Draw or Bouenguidi

47%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+

26%

Bouenguidi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals

76%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

41%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

17%

Bouenguidi 1+ goals

53%

Bouenguidi 2+ goals

17%

Bouenguidi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

73%

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Bouenguidi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.50 + Bouenguidi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bouenguidi attack 0.33 + Maniema Union defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Maniema Union scores more

53%

level

27%

Bouenguidi scores more

20%

Maniema Union at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

E. Wombo Bitheghe← D. Etoua

12'

M. Mbabu

40'

K. Kalowa

78'

L. Sukama← L. Yelemaya

78'

S. Tchitemayi← K. Kalowa

79'

I. Zemanga← C. Mouele

79'

K. Aunouviet← P. Mboumba

86'

A. Kacou Bi← H. Imana

Maniema

Bouenguidi

3

sambat

23

▼

Mboumba

16

Allogho

6

▼

Etoua

13

▼

25

8

14

17

24

27

16

12

26

3

15

7

8

▼

Yelemaya

13

Bisamuna

22

⚽

Mbabu

9

⚽

▼

Kalowa

11

▼

Imana

Manager: T. Djene

78'▲L. Sukama←▼L. Yelemaya

78'▲S. Tchitemayi←▼K. Kalowa

86'▲A. Kacou Bi←▼H. Imana

Maniema Union substitutes

27Sukama10Tchitemayi14Bi31Baku28Mutuale2Monzali30Monzobo4Sefu37Mutuila

Manager: Y. Sosthene

8'▲E. Wombo Bitheghe←▼D. Etoua

79'▲I. Zemanga←▼C. Mouele

79'▲K. Aunouviet←▼P. Mboumba

Bouenguidi substitutes

2Bitheghe34Zemanga28Aunouviet9Bitheghe20Bekale1Asso10bibenda