Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manica Diamonds vs Mushowani Stars — Premier Soccer League 2026

Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
FT
1 – 0
Mushowani Stars
Mushowani Stars
4/22/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Manica Diamonds51%
×Draw29%
Mushowani Stars20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manica Diamonds
1.31
Mushowani Stars
0.70

Manica Diamonds creates 87% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 18 away

creates per match

Manica Diamonds
1.07
Mushowani Stars
0.83

allows per match

Manica Diamonds
0.58
Mushowani Stars
1.56

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par
Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Mushowani Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw
80%
Manica Diamonds or Mushowani Stars
71%
Draw or Mushowani Stars
49%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
24%
Mushowani Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
73%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
38%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
14%
Mushowani Stars 1+ goals
50%
Mushowani Stars 2+ goals
16%
Mushowani Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
72%
Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more
51%
level
29%
Mushowani Stars scores more
20%

Manica Diamonds at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manica Diamonds vs Mushowani Stars

Manica Diamonds beat Mushowani Stars 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 22, 2019.

The match was played at Gibbo Stadium in Triangle.