Manica Diamonds 2–0 Chapungu United: Result & Stats

Manica Diamonds

FT

2 – 0

Chapungu United

12/11/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 33Vengere Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manica Diamonds44%

×Draw36%

Chapungu United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manica DiamondsExpected goals in this matchChapungu United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.55

Manica Diamonds

0.95

Chapungu United

0.55

Manica Diamonds creates 73% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

1.07

creates per match

0.53

0.58

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Manica Diamonds

1.07

Chapungu United

0.53

allows per match

Manica Diamonds

0.58

Chapungu United

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Chapungu United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Chapungu United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–112%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw

79%

Manica Diamonds or Chapungu United

64%

Draw or Chapungu United

56%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+

17%

Chapungu United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals

61%

Manica Diamonds 2+ goals

25%

Manica Diamonds 3+ goals

7%

Chapungu United 1+ goals

42%

Chapungu United 2+ goals

11%

Chapungu United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)

68%

Chapungu United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Chapungu United away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Chapungu United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Chapungu United attack 0.53 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more

44%

level

36%

Chapungu United scores more

21%

Manica Diamonds at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff