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Manica Diamonds vs Black Rhinos — Premier Soccer League 2026

Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
5/15/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 15Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Manica Diamonds45%
×Draw33%
Black Rhinos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manica Diamonds
1.04
Black Rhinos
0.63

Manica Diamonds creates 65% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 51 away

creates per match

Manica Diamonds
1.07
Black Rhinos
0.67

allows per match

Manica Diamonds
0.58
Black Rhinos
1.02

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par
Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Black Rhinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw
78%
Manica Diamonds or Black Rhinos
67%
Draw or Black Rhinos
55%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
18%
Black Rhinos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
65%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
28%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
9%
Black Rhinos 1+ goals
47%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
13%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
67%
Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more
45%
level
33%
Black Rhinos scores more
22%

Manica Diamonds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manica Diamonds vs Black Rhinos

Manica Diamonds and Black Rhinos drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.