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Manhattan vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

Manhattan
Manhattan
FT
3 – 2
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
6/2/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Gaelic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Manhattan60%
×Draw19%
FA Euro New York21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manhattan
2.40
FA Euro New York
1.36

Manhattan creates 76% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 25 away

creates per match

Manhattan
2.56
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

Manhattan
1.56
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

Manhattan+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manhattan ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Manhattan or draw
79%
Manhattan or FA Euro New York
81%
Draw or FA Euro New York
40%

Winning margin

Manhattan wins by 2+
39%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Manhattan 1+ goals
91%
Manhattan 2+ goals
69%
Manhattan 3+ goals
42%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
74%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
39%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Manhattan (draw refunded)
74%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manhattan at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manhattan attack 2.56 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.40

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + Manhattan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manhattan scores more
60%
level
19%
FA Euro New York scores more
21%

Manhattan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manhattan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Manhattan 3–2 FA Euro New York

Manhattan beat FA Euro New York 3-2 in USL League Two on June 2, 2021.

The match was played at Gaelic Park in New York City.