FA Euro New York 0–3 Manhattan: Result & Stats

FA Euro New York

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Manhattan

7/12/2023

USL League Two · Eastern Conference - 25Poly Prep Country Day School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FA Euro New York35%

×Draw25%

Manhattan40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FA Euro New YorkExpected goals in this matchManhattan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.51

FA Euro New York

1.38

Manhattan

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

1.27

creates per match

1.79

1.23

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FA Euro New York

1.27

Manhattan

1.79

allows per match

FA Euro New York

1.23

Manhattan

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Manhattan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

Manhattan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw

60%

FA Euro New York or Manhattan

75%

Draw or Manhattan

65%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+

16%

Manhattan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals

75%

FA Euro New York 2+ goals

40%

FA Euro New York 3+ goals

16%

Manhattan 1+ goals

78%

Manhattan 2+ goals

44%

Manhattan 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)

46%

Manhattan (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Manhattan away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + Manhattan defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Manhattan attack 1.79 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FA Euro New York scores more

35%

level

25%

Manhattan scores more

40%

Manhattan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manhattan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff