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Mangasport vs Stade Migoveen — Championnat D1 2022

Mangasport
Mangasport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Migoveen
Stade Migoveen
5/16/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mangasport61%
×Draw23%
Stade Migoveen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mangasport
1.72
Stade Migoveen
0.73

Mangasport creates 136% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mangasport
2.13
Stade Migoveen
0.77

allows per match

Mangasport
0.68
Stade Migoveen
1.31

finishing

Mangasport+0.00on par
Stade Migoveen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mangasport ↓

Stade Migoveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mangasport or draw
84%
Mangasport or Stade Migoveen
77%
Draw or Stade Migoveen
39%

Winning margin

Mangasport wins by 2+
35%
Stade Migoveen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mangasport 1+ goals
82%
Mangasport 2+ goals
51%
Mangasport 3+ goals
25%
Stade Migoveen 1+ goals
52%
Stade Migoveen 2+ goals
17%
Stade Migoveen 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mangasport (draw refunded)
80%
Stade Migoveen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mangasport at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.68 · 31 matches

Stade Migoveen away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mangasport attack 2.13 + Stade Migoveen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

Stade Migoveen attack 0.77 + Mangasport defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mangasport scores more
61%
level
23%
Stade Migoveen scores more
16%

Mangasport at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mangasport vs Stade Migoveen

Mangasport beat Stade Migoveen 2-1 in Championnat D1 on May 16, 2026.