Mangasport 1–0 Ogooue FC: Result & Stats

Mangasport

FT

1 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ogooue FC

4/25/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mangasport56%

×Draw25%

Ogooue FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MangasportExpected goals in this matchOgooue FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.77

Mangasport

1.56

Ogooue FC

0.77

Mangasport creates 103% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

2.13

creates per match

0.85

0.68

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Mangasport

2.13

Ogooue FC

0.85

allows per match

Mangasport

0.68

Ogooue FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mangasport+0.00on par

Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mangasport ↓

Ogooue FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mangasport or draw

82%

Mangasport or Ogooue FC

75%

Draw or Ogooue FC

44%

Winning margin

Mangasport wins by 2+

30%

Ogooue FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mangasport 1+ goals

79%

Mangasport 2+ goals

46%

Mangasport 3+ goals

21%

Ogooue FC 1+ goals

54%

Ogooue FC 2+ goals

18%

Ogooue FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mangasport (draw refunded)

75%

Ogooue FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mangasport at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.68 · 31 matches

Ogooue FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mangasport attack 2.13 + Ogooue FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ogooue FC attack 0.85 + Mangasport defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mangasport scores more

56%

level

25%

Ogooue FC scores more

18%

Mangasport at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff