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Mangasport vs Mounana — Championnat D1 2022

Mangasport
Mangasport
FT
1 – 1
Mounana
Mounana
2/25/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 10Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mangasport55%
×Draw25%
Mounana20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mangasport
1.62
Mounana
0.86

Mangasport creates 88% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mangasport
2.13
Mounana
1.05

allows per match

Mangasport
0.68
Mounana
1.11

finishing

Mangasport+0.00on par
Mounana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mangasport ↓

Mounana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mangasport or draw
80%
Mangasport or Mounana
75%
Draw or Mounana
45%

Winning margin

Mangasport wins by 2+
30%
Mounana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mangasport 1+ goals
80%
Mangasport 2+ goals
48%
Mangasport 3+ goals
22%
Mounana 1+ goals
58%
Mounana 2+ goals
21%
Mounana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mangasport (draw refunded)
74%
Mounana (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mangasport at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.68 · 31 matches

Mounana away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mangasport attack 2.13 + Mounana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.62

Mounana attack 1.05 + Mangasport defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mangasport scores more
55%
level
25%
Mounana scores more
20%

Mangasport at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mangasport vs Mounana

Mangasport and Mounana drew 1-1 in Championnat D1 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang in Libreville.