Mancunian Unity W 2–9 Newcastle United W

Mancunian Unity W

2 – 9

Newcastle United W

11/12/2023

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundVestacare Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mancunian Unity W30%

×Draw18%

Newcastle United W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mancunian Unity WExpected goals in this matchNewcastle United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.96

Mancunian Unity W

2.25

Newcastle United W

2.96

Newcastle United W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

3.50

2.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mancunian Unity W

3.00

Newcastle United W

3.50

allows per match

Mancunian Unity W

2.43

Newcastle United W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mancunian Unity W+0.00on par

Newcastle United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancunian Unity W ↓

Newcastle United W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Mancunian Unity W or draw

48%

Mancunian Unity W or Newcastle United W

82%

Draw or Newcastle United W

70%

Winning margin

Mancunian Unity W wins by 2+

16%

Newcastle United W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Mancunian Unity W 1+ goals

89%

Mancunian Unity W 2+ goals

65%

Mancunian Unity W 3+ goals

39%

Newcastle United W 1+ goals

95%

Newcastle United W 2+ goals

79%

Newcastle United W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Mancunian Unity W (draw refunded)

36%

Newcastle United W (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mancunian Unity W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Newcastle United W away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mancunian Unity W attack 3.00 + Newcastle United W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Newcastle United W attack 3.50 + Mancunian Unity W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mancunian Unity W scores more

30%

level

18%

Newcastle United W scores more

52%

Newcastle United W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newcastle United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff