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Mancunian Unity W vs Hull City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Mancunian Unity W
Mancunian Unity W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hull City W
Hull City W
12/14/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mancunian Unity W29%
×Draw18%
Hull City W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancunian Unity W
2.13
Hull City W
2.84

Hull City W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mancunian Unity W
3.00
Hull City W
3.25

allows per match

Mancunian Unity W
2.43
Hull City W
1.25

finishing

Mancunian Unity W+0.00on par
Hull City W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancunian Unity W ↓

Hull City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Mancunian Unity W or draw
47%
Mancunian Unity W or Hull City W
82%
Draw or Hull City W
71%

Winning margin

Mancunian Unity W wins by 2+
15%
Hull City W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Mancunian Unity W 1+ goals
88%
Mancunian Unity W 2+ goals
63%
Mancunian Unity W 3+ goals
35%
Hull City W 1+ goals
94%
Hull City W 2+ goals
77%
Hull City W 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Mancunian Unity W (draw refunded)
36%
Hull City W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancunian Unity W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Hull City W away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancunian Unity W attack 3.00 + Hull City W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Hull City W attack 3.25 + Mancunian Unity W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mancunian Unity W scores more
29%
level
18%
Hull City W scores more
53%

Hull City W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hull City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancunian Unity W vs Hull City W

Hull City W beat Mancunian Unity W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 14, 2025.