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Mancunian Unity W vs Durham Cestria W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Mancunian Unity W
Mancunian Unity W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Durham Cestria W
Durham Cestria W
11/23/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mancunian Unity W56%
×Draw19%
Durham Cestria W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancunian Unity W
2.57
Durham Cestria W
1.72

Mancunian Unity W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mancunian Unity W
3.00
Durham Cestria W
1.00

allows per match

Mancunian Unity W
2.43
Durham Cestria W
2.14

finishing

Mancunian Unity W+0.00on par
Durham Cestria W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancunian Unity W ↓

Durham Cestria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Mancunian Unity W or draw
75%
Mancunian Unity W or Durham Cestria W
81%
Draw or Durham Cestria W
44%

Winning margin

Mancunian Unity W wins by 2+
36%
Durham Cestria W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mancunian Unity W 1+ goals
92%
Mancunian Unity W 2+ goals
72%
Mancunian Unity W 3+ goals
47%
Durham Cestria W 1+ goals
82%
Durham Cestria W 2+ goals
51%
Durham Cestria W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mancunian Unity W (draw refunded)
69%
Durham Cestria W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancunian Unity W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Durham Cestria W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancunian Unity W attack 3.00 + Durham Cestria W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.57

Durham Cestria W attack 1.00 + Mancunian Unity W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mancunian Unity W scores more
56%
level
19%
Durham Cestria W scores more
25%

Mancunian Unity W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mancunian Unity W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancunian Unity W vs Durham Cestria W

Mancunian Unity W beat Durham Cestria W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 23, 2025.