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Manchester United W vs Liverpool W — FA WSL 2018

Manchester United W
Manchester United W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Liverpool W
Liverpool W
12/17/2023FA WSLFA WSL · Round 10Leigh Sports Village Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Manchester United W62%
×Draw21%
Liverpool W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester United W
2.01
Liverpool W
0.95

Manchester United W creates 112% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 64 away

creates per match

Manchester United W
2.29
Liverpool W
1.05

allows per match

Manchester United W
0.85
Liverpool W
1.73

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par
Liverpool W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Liverpool W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw
83%
Manchester United W or Liverpool W
79%
Draw or Liverpool W
38%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+
38%
Liverpool W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals
87%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
59%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
32%
Liverpool W 1+ goals
61%
Liverpool W 2+ goals
25%
Liverpool W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)
78%
Liverpool W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.85 · 73 matches

Liverpool W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 2.29 + Liverpool W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.01

Liverpool W attack 1.05 + Manchester United W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Manchester United W scores more
62%
level
21%
Liverpool W scores more
17%

Manchester United W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester United W vs Liverpool W

Liverpool W beat Manchester United W 2-1 in FA WSL on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Leigh Sports Village Stadium in Leigh, Greater Manchester.