Liverpool W 1–0 Manchester United W: Result & Stats

Liverpool W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Manchester United W

5/5/2024

FA WSL · Round 21Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Liverpool W29%

×Draw25%

Manchester United W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool WExpected goals in this matchManchester United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.53

Liverpool W

1.17

Manchester United W

1.53

Manchester United W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 72 away

1.32

creates per match

1.69

1.38

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Liverpool W

1.32

Manchester United W

1.69

allows per match

Liverpool W

1.38

Manchester United W

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool W+0.00on par

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool W ↓

Manchester United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Liverpool W or draw

54%

Liverpool W or Manchester United W

75%

Draw or Manchester United W

71%

Winning margin

Liverpool W wins by 2+

12%

Manchester United W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Liverpool W 1+ goals

69%

Liverpool W 2+ goals

33%

Liverpool W 3+ goals

11%

Manchester United W 1+ goals

78%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

45%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Liverpool W (draw refunded)

39%

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.01 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool W attack 1.32 + Manchester United W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Manchester United W attack 1.69 + Liverpool W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Liverpool W scores more

29%

level

25%

Manchester United W scores more

46%

Manchester United W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff