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Manchester United W vs Hammarby W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Manchester United W
Manchester United W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hammarby W
Hammarby W
8/30/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd Qualifying Round - Finals3Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Manchester United W68%
×Draw19%
Hammarby W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester United W
2.19
Hammarby W
0.84

Manchester United W creates 161% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Manchester United W
1.78
Hammarby W
0.80

allows per match

Manchester United W
0.89
Hammarby W
2.60

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par
Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Hammarby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw
87%
Manchester United W or Hammarby W
81%
Draw or Hammarby W
32%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+
44%
Hammarby W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals
89%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
64%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
37%
Hammarby W 1+ goals
57%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
21%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)
84%
Hammarby W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 1.78 + Hammarby W defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hammarby W attack 0.80 + Manchester United W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Manchester United W scores more
68%
level
19%
Hammarby W scores more
13%

Manchester United W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester United W vs Hammarby W

Manchester United W beat Hammarby W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.