Manchester United W 4–1 Everton W: Result & Stats

Manchester United W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Everton W

L. Galton 90'

E. Toone 65', 60'

M. Turner 57'

K. Snoeijs 10'

3/31/2024

FA WSL · Round 18Leigh Sports Village Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Manchester United W58%

×Draw22%

Everton W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester United WExpected goals in this matchEverton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.00

Manchester United W

1.87

Everton W

1.00

Manchester United W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 80 away

2.28

creates per match

1.13

0.87

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Manchester United W

2.28

Everton W

1.13

allows per match

Manchester United W

0.87

Everton W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Everton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Everton W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw

80%

Manchester United W or Everton W

78%

Draw or Everton W

42%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+

33%

Everton W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals

85%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

56%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

29%

Everton W 1+ goals

63%

Everton W 2+ goals

26%

Everton W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

74%

Everton W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.87 · 71 matches

Everton W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 2.28 + Everton W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.87

Everton W attack 1.13 + Manchester United W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Manchester United W scores more

58%

level

22%

Everton W scores more

20%

Manchester United W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Toone

Manchester United W · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

23'

57'

60'

65'

E. Toone↳ L. Naalsund

71'

K. Veje← K. Kühl

72'

M. Piemonte← H. Bennison

72'

K. Holmgaard← J. Vanhaevermaet

73'

R. Williams← N. Parris

73'

L. Galton← Geyse

78'

S. Holmgaard← E. Stenevik

78'

E. Bissell← H. Payne

90+5'

Rachel Williams

90'

H. Miyazawa← Lucía García

90'

L. Galton↳ R. Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterEverton

Overview

59%Possession41%

23Total Shots6

13Corners4

12Fouls6

Shots

23Total Shots6

8On Target2

7Off Target3

8Blocked1

18Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

554Total Passes390

454Accurate Passes291

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1