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Manchester United W vs Bristol City W — FA WSL 2018

Manchester United W
Manchester United W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City W
Bristol City W
3/17/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 16Leigh Sports Village Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Manchester United W74%
×Draw15%
Bristol City W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester United W
2.70
Bristol City W
0.94

Manchester United W creates 187% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 40 away

creates per match

Manchester United W
2.29
Bristol City W
1.02

allows per match

Manchester United W
0.85
Bristol City W
3.10

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par
Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Bristol City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw
89%
Manchester United W or Bristol City W
85%
Draw or Bristol City W
26%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+
53%
Bristol City W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals
93%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
75%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
50%
Bristol City W 1+ goals
61%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
24%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)
87%
Bristol City W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.85 · 73 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 1.02, concedes 3.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 2.29 + Bristol City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.70

Bristol City W attack 1.02 + Manchester United W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Manchester United W scores more
74%
level
15%
Bristol City W scores more
11%

Manchester United W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester United W vs Bristol City W

Manchester United W beat Bristol City W 2-0 in FA WSL on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Leigh Sports Village Stadium in Leigh, Greater Manchester.