Manchester United W 2–0 Atletico Madrid W

Manchester United W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Madrid W

J. Park 41'

J. Zigiotti Olme 28'

2/19/2026

UEFA Champions League Women · Round of 16Leigh Sports Village

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Manchester United W39%

×Draw24%

Atletico Madrid W37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester United WExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.55

Manchester United W

1.59

Atletico Madrid W

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.78

creates per match

2.20

0.89

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Manchester United W

1.78

Atletico Madrid W

2.20

allows per match

Manchester United W

0.89

Atletico Madrid W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw

63%

Manchester United W or Atletico Madrid W

76%

Draw or Atletico Madrid W

61%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals

80%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

47%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

51%

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 1.78 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.20 + Manchester United W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manchester United W scores more

39%

level

24%

Atletico Madrid W scores more

37%

Manchester United W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

P. Tullis-Joyce

Atletico Madrid W

7.9

Match Events

20'

Lea Schüller

28'

J. Zigiotti Olme↳ L. Naalsund

34'

Carmen Menayo

41'

J. Park↳ H. Miyazawa

46'

S. Awujo← J. Zigiotti Olme

51'

Hanna Lundkvist

55'

E. Wangerheim← L. Schuller

58'

N. Martin← V. Boe Risa

58'

L. Rodriguez← C. Menayo

65'

K. Kuhl← F. Iannuzzi

65'

R. Otermin← A. Medina

65'

G. George← H. Lundkvist

74'

75'

76'

78'

85'

85'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterAtletico

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots14

3Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots14

9On Target4

7Off Target5

2Blocked5

11Inside Box12

7Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

409Total Passes434

334Accurate Passes333

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1