Manchester United W 0–1 Aston Villa W

Manchester United W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aston Villa W

11/8/2025

FA WSL · Round 8Leigh Sports Village

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Manchester United W60%

×Draw21%

Aston Villa W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester United WExpected goals in this matchAston Villa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.06

Manchester United W

2.06

Aston Villa W

1.06

Manchester United W creates 94% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 66 away

2.29

creates per match

1.27

0.85

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Manchester United W

2.29

Aston Villa W

1.27

allows per match

Manchester United W

0.85

Aston Villa W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Aston Villa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw

81%

Manchester United W or Aston Villa W

79%

Draw or Aston Villa W

40%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+

37%

Aston Villa W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals

87%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

61%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

34%

Aston Villa W 1+ goals

65%

Aston Villa W 2+ goals

29%

Aston Villa W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

76%

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.85 · 73 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 2.29 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.06

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Manchester United W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manchester United W scores more

60%

level

21%

Aston Villa W scores more

19%

Manchester United W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff