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Manchester United vs Sheriff Tiraspol — UEFA Europa League 2018

Manchester United
Manchester United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
10/27/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manchester United69%
×Draw19%
Sheriff Tiraspol12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester United
2.07
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.72

Manchester United creates 188% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Manchester United
2.50
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.82

allows per match

Manchester United
0.63
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.64

finishing

Manchester United+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw
88%
Manchester United or Sheriff Tiraspol
81%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
31%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+
44%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals
87%
Manchester United 2+ goals
61%
Manchester United 3+ goals
34%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
51%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
16%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)
85%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.50 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.07

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 0.82 + Manchester United defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Manchester United scores more
69%
level
19%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
12%

Manchester United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester United vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Manchester United beat Sheriff Tiraspol 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 27, 2022.

The match was played at Old Trafford in Manchester.