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Manchester United vs Sheffield Utd — Premier League 2026

Manchester United
Manchester United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
1/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Manchester United65%
×Draw20%
Sheffield Utd15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester United
2.08
Sheffield Utd
0.89

Manchester United creates 134% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 10 away

creates per match

Manchester United
2.17
Sheffield Utd
0.66

allows per match

Manchester United
1.12
Sheffield Utd
1.98

finishing

Manchester United-0.26scores less
Sheffield Utd+0.04on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw
85%
Manchester United or Sheffield Utd
80%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
35%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+
40%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals
87%
Manchester United 2+ goals
61%
Manchester United 3+ goals
34%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
59%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
22%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)
81%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.17 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sheffield Utd attack 0.66 + Manchester United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Manchester United scores more
65%
level
20%
Sheffield Utd scores more
15%

Manchester United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manchester United 1–2 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Manchester United 2-1 in Premier League on January 27, 2021.

The match was played at Old Trafford in Manchester.