Manchester United 2–0 Manchester City

Manchester United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

P. Dorgu 76'

B. Mbeumo 65'

1/17/2026

Premier League · Round 22Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Manchester United43%

×Draw24%

Manchester City33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.44

Manchester United

1.66

Manchester City

1.44

Manchester United creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

2.11

creates per match

1.76

1.11

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Manchester United

2.11

Manchester City

1.76

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Manchester City

1.21

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.15scores less

Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

67%

Manchester United or Manchester City

76%

Draw or Manchester City

57%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

22%

Manchester City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

81%

Manchester United 2+ goals

49%

Manchester United 3+ goals

23%

Manchester City 1+ goals

76%

Manchester City 2+ goals

42%

Manchester City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

56%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.11 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.66

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manchester United scores more

43%

level

24%

Manchester City scores more

33%

Manchester United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Diogo Dalot

17'

Luke Shaw

45+2'

Rodri

46'

N. O'Reilly← M. Alleyne

46'

R. Cherki← P. Foden

48'

Nico O'Reilly

65'

B. Mbeumo↳ B. Fernandes

71'

M. Cunha← B. Mbeumo

75'

Rico Lewis

76'

P. Dorgu↳ M. Cunha

80'

T. Reijnders← B. Silva

80'

R. Ait-Nouri← J. Doku

80'

D. Mukasa← E. Haaland

81'

M. Ugarte← Casemiro

90+4'

Mason MountGoal cancelled

90+1'

M. Mount← B. Fernandes

90+1'

A. Heaven← L. Shaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterManchester

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots7

2.27Expected Goals (xG)0.45

1Corners6

13Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots7

7On Target1

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

10Inside Box5

1Outside Box2

Passing

32%Possession68%

302Total Passes646

240Accurate Passes581

79%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

13Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1