Manchester United vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 25+ matches
Manchester United43%
Manchester City33%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Manchester United creates 15% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Manchester United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Manchester United at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches
Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Manchester United attack 2.11 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.66
Manchester City attack 1.76 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Manchester United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Brentford
Brighton
Chelsea
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Everton
Fulham
Hull City
Ipswich
Leeds
LiverpoolManchester CityManchester United
Newcastle
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
TottenhamIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Manchester United host Manchester City on Sunday, 12 April 2015 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Premier League: Manchester United 4–2 Manchester City
Manchester United beat Manchester City 4-2 in Premier League on April 12, 2015.
Goals: S. Agüero (8', 89'), A. Young (14'), M. Fellaini (27'), Mata (67'), C. Smalling (73').
The match was played at Old Trafford (Manchester).