Manchester United 2–0 Everton: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Everton

A. Martial 71'

S. McTominay 36'

4/8/2023

Premier League · Round 30Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Manchester United57%

×Draw22%

Everton22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.13

Manchester United

1.97

Everton

1.13

Manchester United creates 74% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

2.19

creates per match

1.15

1.11

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Manchester United

2.19

Everton

1.15

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Everton

1.75

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.26scores less

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

78%

Manchester United or Everton

78%

Draw or Everton

43%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

33%

Everton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

86%

Manchester United 2+ goals

58%

Manchester United 3+ goals

31%

Everton 1+ goals

68%

Everton 2+ goals

31%

Everton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

73%

Everton (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 30 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.19 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.97

Everton attack 1.15 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Manchester United scores more

57%

level

22%

Everton scores more

22%

Manchester United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Pickford

Everton · G

8.2

Match Events

36'

S. McTominay↳ J. Sancho

46'

V. Mykolenko← B. Godfrey

60'

60'

60'

70'

71'

A. Martial↳ M. Rashford

76'

Fred← M. Sabitzer

77'

C. Eriksen← J. Sancho

81'

W. Weghorst← M. Rashford

87'

N. Patterson← S. Coleman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterEverton

Overview

64%Possession36%

29Total Shots15

3.46Expected Goals (xG)1.02

10Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

29Total Shots15

11On Target1

10Off Target6

8Blocked8

20Inside Box9

9Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

614Total Passes331

535Accurate Passes236

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Offsides2