Manchester United U19 0–2 Bayern München U19

Manchester United U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bayern München U19

12/12/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Leigh Sports Village Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Manchester United U1951%

×Draw20%

Bayern München U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester United U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.64

Manchester United U19

2.23

Bayern München U19

1.64

Manchester United U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

2.67

creates per match

1.84

1.44

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Manchester United U19

2.67

Bayern München U19

1.84

allows per match

Manchester United U19

1.44

Bayern München U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Manchester United U19 or draw

71%

Manchester United U19 or Bayern München U19

80%

Draw or Bayern München U19

49%

Winning margin

Manchester United U19 wins by 2+

31%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Manchester United U19 1+ goals

89%

Manchester United U19 2+ goals

65%

Manchester United U19 3+ goals

38%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

81%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

49%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Manchester United U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United U19 attack 2.67 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.23

Bayern München U19 attack 1.84 + Manchester United U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manchester United U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Bayern München U19 scores more

29%

Manchester United U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manchester United U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff