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Manchester City W vs Real Madrid W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
8/21/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - FinalsEstadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Manchester City W61%
×Draw21%
Real Madrid W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
1.98
Real Madrid W
0.94

Manchester City W creates 111% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.31
Real Madrid W
1.56

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.31
Real Madrid W
1.64

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
83%
Manchester City W or Real Madrid W
79%
Draw or Real Madrid W
39%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
37%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
86%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
59%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
31%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
61%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
24%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
78%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Real Madrid W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

Real Madrid W attack 1.56 + Manchester City W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Manchester City W scores more
61%
level
21%
Real Madrid W scores more
17%

Manchester City W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Manchester City W 0–1 Real Madrid W

Real Madrid W beat Manchester City W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.