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Manchester City W vs Hammarby W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hammarby W
Hammarby W
A. Fujino 80'
L. Blindkilde Brown 47'
11/12/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 3Joie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Manchester City W79%
×Draw14%
Hammarby W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
2.46
Hammarby W
0.56

Manchester City W creates 339% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.31
Hammarby W
0.80

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.31
Hammarby W
2.60

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Hammarby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
93%
Manchester City W or Hammarby W
86%
Draw or Hammarby W
21%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
56%
Hammarby W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
91%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
70%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
44%
Hammarby W 1+ goals
43%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
11%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
92%
Hammarby W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Hammarby W defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.46

Hammarby W attack 0.80 + Manchester City W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Manchester City W scores more
79%
level
14%
Hammarby W scores more
7%

Manchester City W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
Leila OuahabiManchester City WManchester City W · D
8.3

Match Events

45'
Stina Lennartsson
47'
L. Blindkilde Brown↳ M. Fowler
56'
T. Sørbo← A. Miyagawa
57'
S. Holmberg← J. Andersson
69'
A. Jøsendal← J. Blakstad
69'
E. Westin← V. Hasund
80'
A. Fujino↳ Leila Ouahabi
81'
C. Kelly← A. Fujino
81'
J. Roord← L. Blindkilde Brown
86'
S. Vallotto← C. Tandberg
88'
L. Murphy← K. Shaw
90+3'
Alanna Kennedy
90+2'
G. Prior← A. Greenwood
90+2'
L. Coombs← J. Park

Possession

74%Manchester

Shots

16Manchester

Pass accuracy

57%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterHammarby
Overview
74%Possession26%
16Total Shots6
5Corners6
4Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots6
3On Target2
10Off Target2
3Blocked2
15Inside Box4
1Outside Box2
Passing
74%Possession26%
694Total Passes244
620Accurate Passes166
89%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
4Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Manchester City W vs Hammarby W

Manchester City W beat Hammarby W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 12, 2024.

Goals: L. Blindkilde Brown (47'), A. Fujino (80').

Manchester City W controlled possession (74%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Joie Stadium in Manchester.