Manchester City W 1–1 Everton W: Result & Stats

Manchester City W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Everton W

4/20/2025

FA WSL · Round 19Joie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Manchester City W65%

×Draw20%

Everton W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester City WExpected goals in this matchEverton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.98

Manchester City W

2.19

Everton W

0.98

Manchester City W creates 123% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

2.91

creates per match

1.13

0.84

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Manchester City W

2.91

Everton W

1.13

allows per match

Manchester City W

0.84

Everton W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par

Everton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Everton W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw

84%

Manchester City W or Everton W

80%

Draw or Everton W

35%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+

41%

Everton W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City W 2+ goals

64%

Manchester City W 3+ goals

37%

Everton W 1+ goals

62%

Everton W 2+ goals

26%

Everton W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)

80%

Everton W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Everton W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.91 + Everton W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.19

Everton W attack 1.13 + Manchester City W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Manchester City W scores more

65%

level

20%

Everton W scores more

16%

Manchester City W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff