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Manchester City W vs Aston Villa W — FA WSL 2018

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
10/20/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 5Joie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Manchester City W66%
×Draw18%
Aston Villa W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
2.37
Aston Villa W
1.05

Manchester City W creates 126% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.91
Aston Villa W
1.27

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.84
Aston Villa W
1.82

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Aston Villa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
85%
Manchester City W or Aston Villa W
82%
Draw or Aston Villa W
34%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
44%
Aston Villa W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
91%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
68%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
42%
Aston Villa W 1+ goals
65%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
28%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
81%
Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.91 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Manchester City W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Manchester City W scores more
66%
level
18%
Aston Villa W scores more
15%

Manchester City W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester City W vs Aston Villa W

Manchester City W beat Aston Villa W 2-1 in FA WSL on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Joie Stadium in Manchester.