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Manchester City W vs Arsenal W — FA WSL 2018

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Arsenal W
Arsenal W
2/2/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 13Joie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Manchester City W43%
×Draw22%
Arsenal W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
1.87
Arsenal W
1.67

Manchester City W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.91
Arsenal W
2.49

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.84
Arsenal W
0.83

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Arsenal W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Arsenal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
65%
Manchester City W or Arsenal W
78%
Draw or Arsenal W
57%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
23%
Arsenal W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
85%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
56%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
29%
Arsenal W 1+ goals
81%
Arsenal W 2+ goals
50%
Arsenal W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
55%
Arsenal W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Arsenal W away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.83 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.91 + Arsenal W defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.87

Arsenal W attack 2.49 + Manchester City W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manchester City W scores more
43%
level
22%
Arsenal W scores more
35%

Manchester City W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester City W vs Arsenal W

Arsenal W beat Manchester City W 4-3 in FA WSL on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Joie Stadium in Manchester.