Manchester City 2–0 Wolves: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wolves

A. Semenyo 45'

O. Marmoush 6'

1/24/2026

Premier League · Round 23Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Manchester City61%

×Draw22%

Wolves17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.90

Manchester City

1.92

Wolves

0.90

Manchester City creates 113% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

2.08

creates per match

0.79

1.00

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Wolves

0.79

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Wolves

1.76

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more

Wolves-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

83%

Manchester City or Wolves

78%

Draw or Wolves

39%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

36%

Wolves wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

85%

Manchester City 2+ goals

57%

Manchester City 3+ goals

30%

Wolves 1+ goals

59%

Wolves 2+ goals

23%

Wolves 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

78%

Wolves (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.76 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Wolves defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Wolves attack 0.79 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Manchester City scores more

61%

level

22%

Wolves scores more

17%

Manchester City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

O. Marmoush↳ M. Nunes

37'

Omar MarmoushPenalty cancelled

45'

A. Semenyo↳ B. Silva

46'

J. S. Larsen← J. Arias

46'

R. Gomes← J. Tchatchoua

57'

André

61'

P. Foden← T. Reijnders

67'

João Gomes

71'

Matheus Nunes

71'

T. Arokodare← Hwang Hee-Chan

73'

E. Haaland← R. Cherki

74'

J. Doku← O. Marmoush

88'

Yerson Mosquera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterWolves

Overview

64%Possession36%

11Total Shots11

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.61

4Corners6

16Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target1

7Off Target5

0Blocked5

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

644Total Passes349

581Accurate Passes278

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-1.04Goals Prevented-1.04

Discipline

16Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides6