Manchester City 3–0 Wolves: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wolves

C. Coady 78' (OG)

Gabriel Jesus 39' (pen), 10'

1/14/2019

Premier League · Round 22Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Manchester City61%

×Draw22%

Wolves17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.89

Manchester City

1.91

Wolves

0.89

Manchester City creates 115% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 31 away

2.10

creates per match

0.82

0.96

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Manchester City

2.10

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Manchester City

0.96

Wolves

1.72

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.34scores more

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

83%

Manchester City or Wolves

78%

Draw or Wolves

39%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

36%

Wolves wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

85%

Manchester City 2+ goals

57%

Manchester City 3+ goals

30%

Wolves 1+ goals

59%

Wolves 2+ goals

22%

Wolves 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

78%

Wolves (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 36 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.10 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.91

Wolves attack 0.82 + Manchester City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Manchester City scores more

61%

level

22%

Wolves scores more

17%

Manchester City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Gabriel Jesus

Manchester City · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

Gabriel Jesus↳ L. Sané

14'

Fernandinho

19'

Willy Boly

39'

Gabriel JesusPenalty

46'

Adama Traoré← R. Jiménez

59'

R. Saïss← Diogo Jota

62'

K. De Bruyne← David Silva

72'

M. Gibbs-White← João Moutinho

74'

İ. Gündoğan← L. Sané

76'

S. Agüero← Gabriel Jesus

78'

C. CoadyOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterWolves

Overview

76%Possession24%

24Total Shots3

12Corners1

6Fouls3

Shots

24Total Shots3

9On Target0

7Off Target1

8Blocked2

13Inside Box2

11Outside Box1

Passing

76%Possession24%

872Total Passes283

803Accurate Passes190

92%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

6Fouls3

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1