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Manchester City vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Southampton
Southampton
K. De Bruyne 59', 15'
R. Mahrez 55', 40'
İ. Gündoğan 45+3'
C. Adams 56'
J. Ward-Prowse 25' (pen)
3/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Manchester City60%
×Draw22%
Southampton18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
1.95
Southampton
0.98

Manchester City creates 99% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 5 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.06
Southampton
0.98

allows per match

Manchester City
0.98
Southampton
1.83

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more
Southampton-0.18scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
82%
Manchester City or Southampton
78%
Draw or Southampton
40%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
36%
Southampton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
86%
Manchester City 2+ goals
58%
Manchester City 3+ goals
31%
Southampton 1+ goals
62%
Southampton 2+ goals
26%
Southampton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
76%
Southampton (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.98 · 34 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.83 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.06 + Southampton defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.95

Southampton attack 0.98 + Manchester City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manchester City scores more
60%
level
22%
Southampton scores more
18%

Manchester City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
R. MahrezManchester CityManchester City · F
8.7

Match Events

15'
K. De Bruyne
25'
J. Ward-ProwsePenalty
40'
R. Mahrez
45+3'
İ. Gündoğan
46'
N. Tella← M. Djenepo
55'
R. Mahrez↳ P. Foden
56'
C. Adams
59'
K. De Bruyne↳ P. Foden
61'
Ferran Torres← R. Mahrez
63'
I. Diallo← J. Stephens
72'
S. Agüero← K. De Bruyne
72'
Caleb Watts← S. Armstrong
81'
B. Mendy← O. Zinchenko
82'
Fernandinho

Possession

58%Manchester

Shots

17Manchester

Pass accuracy

52%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterSouthampton
Overview
58%Possession42%
17Total Shots11
5Corners5
6Fouls4
Shots
17Total Shots11
10On Target6
5Off Target3
2Blocked2
12Inside Box7
5Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
673Total Passes481
613Accurate Passes401
91%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls4
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Southampton

Manchester City beat Southampton 5-2 in Premier League on March 10, 2021.

Goals: K. De Bruyne (15', 59'), J. Ward-Prowse (25' pen), R. Mahrez (40', 55'), İ. Gündoğan (45+3'), C. Adams (56').

Manchester City controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.