Manchester City 6–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Southampton

L. Sané 90+1'

R. Sterling 67', 45+2'

David Silva 18'

S. Agüero 12'

W. Hoedt 6' (OG)

D. Ings 29' (pen)

11/4/2018

Premier League · Round 11Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Manchester City63%

×Draw21%

Southampton17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.94

Manchester City

2.05

Southampton

0.94

Manchester City creates 118% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

2.11

creates per match

0.95

0.94

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Southampton

1.99

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Southampton-0.06on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

83%

Manchester City or Southampton

79%

Draw or Southampton

37%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

39%

Southampton wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

87%

Manchester City 2+ goals

61%

Manchester City 3+ goals

33%

Southampton 1+ goals

61%

Southampton 2+ goals

24%

Southampton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

79%

Southampton (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.99 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Southampton defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.05

Southampton attack 0.95 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Manchester City scores more

63%

level

21%

Southampton scores more

17%

Manchester City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Sterling

Manchester City · F

9.5

Match Events

6'

W. HoedtOwn goal

10'

James Ward-Prowse

12'

S. Agüero↳ R. Sterling

18'

David Silva↳ L. Sané

29'

D. IngsPenalty

38'

Sergio Agüero

45+2'

R. Sterling↳ S. Agüero

67'

R. Sterling↳ S. Agüero

68'

V. Kompany← J. Stones

72'

P. Foden← David Silva

73'

M. Elyounoussi← N. Redmond

73'

M. Obafemi← J. Ward-Prowse

79'

F. Delph← Fernandinho

82'

S. Armstrong← D. Ings

90+1'

L. Sané↳ R. Sterling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterSouthampton

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots13

4Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots13

8On Target6

5Off Target5

5Blocked2

13Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

729Total Passes341

664Accurate Passes269

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1