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Manchester City vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
R. Mahrez 84'
R. Sterling 71'
Aymeric Laporte 64'
J. Grealish 22'
T. Krul 7' (OG)
8/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Manchester City74%
×Draw16%
Norwich9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.37
Norwich
0.70

Manchester City creates 239% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 54 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.70
Norwich
0.56

allows per match

Manchester City
0.83
Norwich
2.04

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
91%
Manchester City or Norwich
84%
Draw or Norwich
26%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
51%
Norwich wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
91%
Manchester City 2+ goals
68%
Manchester City 3+ goals
42%
Norwich 1+ goals
50%
Norwich 2+ goals
16%
Norwich 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
89%
Norwich (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.37

Norwich attack 0.56 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Manchester City scores more
74%
level
16%
Norwich scores more
9%

Manchester City at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Aymeric LaporteManchester CityManchester City · D
8.2

Match Events

7'
T. KrulOwn goal
16'
Ferran TorresGoal cancelled
22'
J. Grealish↳ Gabriel Jesus
39'
İlkay Gündoğan
46'
B. Mumba← D. Giannoulis
46'
K. McLean← L. Rupp
61'
R. Sterling← Ferran Torres
64'
Aymeric Laporte
69'
C. Palmer← İ. Gündoğan
71'
R. Sterling↳ Gabriel Jesus
74'
Kyle WalkerCard reviewed
75'
R. Mahrez← J. Grealish
77'
J. Sargent← T. Pukki
84'
R. Mahrez↳ Rúben Dias

Possession

67%Manchester

Shots

16Manchester

Pass accuracy

53%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterNorwich
Overview
67%Possession33%
16Total Shots1
6Corners1
13Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots1
4On Target0
6Off Target1
6Blocked0
7Inside Box1
9Outside Box0
Passing
67%Possession33%
730Total Passes362
684Accurate Passes307
94%Pass Accuracy85%
Discipline
13Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Norwich

Manchester City beat Norwich 5-0 in Premier League on August 21, 2021.

Goals: T. Krul (7' o.g.), J. Grealish (22'), Aymeric Laporte (64'), R. Sterling (71'), R. Mahrez (84').

Manchester City controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 1.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.