Manchester City 2–0 Napoli: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

J. Doku 65'

E. Haaland 56'

9/18/2025

UEFA Champions League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Manchester City66%

×Draw20%

Napoli14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.88

Manchester City

2.13

Napoli

0.88

Manchester City creates 142% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Manchester City

1.50

Napoli

0.75

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Napoli

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

86%

Manchester City or Napoli

80%

Draw or Napoli

34%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

42%

Napoli wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

88%

Manchester City 2+ goals

63%

Manchester City 3+ goals

35%

Napoli 1+ goals

59%

Napoli 2+ goals

22%

Napoli 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

82%

Napoli (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Napoli away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 1.50 + Napoli defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Napoli attack 0.75 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Manchester City scores more

66%

level

20%

Napoli scores more

14%

Manchester City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Giovanni Di LorenzoCard upgrade

21'

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

26'

M. Olivera← K. De Bruyne

52'

Matteo Politano

55'

Juan Jesus← M. Politano

56'

E. Haaland↳ P. Foden

60'

Nico← Rodri

65'

J. Doku↳ T. Reijnders

69'

Savinho← J. Doku

71'

B. Gilmour← S. Lobotka

71'

David Neres← R. Hojlund

71'

E. Elmas← F. Anguissa

80'

N. Ake← J. Gvardiol

80'

O. Bobb← E. Haaland

80'

R. Lewis← T. Reijnders

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterNapoli

Overview

74%Possession26%

23Total Shots1

2.18Expected Goals (xG)0.17

9Corners2

3Fouls4

Shots

23Total Shots1

8On Target1

9Off Target0

6Blocked0

14Inside Box1

9Outside Box0

Passing

74%Possession26%

805Total Passes281

742Accurate Passes222

92%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

1.08Goals Prevented1.08

Discipline

3Fouls4

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1