Manchester City 1–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

S. Agüero 43'

M. de Roon 90+1'

11/5/2016

Premier League · Round 11Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Manchester City71%

×Draw18%

Middlesbrough11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.68

Manchester City

2.14

Middlesbrough

0.68

Manchester City creates 215% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 19 away

2.70

creates per match

0.53

0.83

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Manchester City

2.70

Middlesbrough

0.53

allows per match

Manchester City

0.83

Middlesbrough

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

89%

Manchester City or Middlesbrough

82%

Draw or Middlesbrough

29%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

46%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

88%

Manchester City 2+ goals

63%

Manchester City 3+ goals

36%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

49%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

15%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

87%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Middlesbrough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.14

Middlesbrough attack 0.53 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Manchester City scores more

71%

level

18%

Middlesbrough scores more

11%

Manchester City at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Fernandinho

Manchester City · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

Adam Forshaw

43'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

52'

Adam Clayton

75'

Nolito← İ. Gündoğan

78'

V. Fischer← S. Downing

86'

Aleix García← Jesús Navas

88'

Sergio Agüero

89'

Marten de Roon

90'

K. Iheanacho← S. Agüero

90+3'

C. Stuani← Adama Traoré

90+1'

M. de Roon↳ G. Friend

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterMiddlesbrough

Overview

71%Possession29%

25Total Shots5

8Corners2

7Fouls15

Shots

25Total Shots5

7On Target3

11Off Target1

7Blocked1

14Inside Box3

11Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

632Total Passes266

554Accurate Passes181

88%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides2