Manchester City 0–2 Manchester United

Manchester City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester United

L. Shaw 50'

Bruno Fernandes 2' (pen)

3/7/2021

Premier League · Round 27Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Manchester City52%

×Draw23%

Manchester United24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.16

Manchester City

1.81

Manchester United

1.16

Manchester City creates 56% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 27 away

2.10

creates per match

1.36

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Manchester City

2.10

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

Manchester City

0.96

Manchester United

1.52

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.34scores more

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

76%

Manchester City or Manchester United

77%

Draw or Manchester United

48%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

29%

Manchester United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

84%

Manchester City 2+ goals

54%

Manchester City 3+ goals

27%

Manchester United 1+ goals

69%

Manchester United 2+ goals

32%

Manchester United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

68%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 36 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.10 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.81

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Manchester City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manchester City scores more

52%

level

23%

Manchester United scores more

24%

Manchester City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Henderson

Manchester United · G

8.2

Match Events

2'

Bruno FernandesPenalty

32'

50'

58'

60'

65'

K. Walker← João Cancelo

71'

P. Foden← Gabriel Jesus

73'

M. Greenwood← M. Rashford

88'

N. Matić← A. Martial

90+3'

B. Williams← Bruno Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterManchester

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots8

6Corners2

9Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots8

6On Target6

10Off Target0

7Blocked2

13Inside Box7

10Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

715Total Passes374

643Accurate Passes293

90%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1