Manchester City vs Manchester United — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 28+ matches
Manchester City52%
Manchester United25%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Manchester City creates 51% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Manchester City ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches
Manchester United away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Manchester City attack 2.11 + Manchester United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80
Manchester United attack 1.44 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Manchester City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Manchester United substitutes
Head to Head
ArsenalManchester CityManchester United
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brighton
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
WolvesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Manchester City host Manchester United on Sunday, 20 March 2016 at 16:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Manchester City 0 – 1 Manchester United
Manchester United beat Manchester City 1-0 in Premier League on March 20, 2016.
Goals: M. Rashford (16').
Manchester City controlled possession (54%) and registered 26 shots to 5.
The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.