Manchester City 4–1 Liverpool: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.33

Manchester City

1.71

Liverpool

1.33

Manchester City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

2.08

creates per match

1.64

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Liverpool

1.64

allows per match

Manchester City

1.03

Liverpool

1.34

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.26scores more

Liverpool+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

70%

Manchester City or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

54%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

25%

Liverpool wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

82%

Manchester City 2+ goals

51%

Manchester City 3+ goals

24%

Liverpool 1+ goals

74%

Liverpool 2+ goals

38%

Liverpool 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

61%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.34 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Liverpool defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Liverpool attack 1.64 + Manchester City defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Manchester City scores more

46%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

30%

Manchester City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

9.2

Match Events

17'

Mohamed SalahGoal confirmed

17'

Mohamed Salah↳ Diogo Jota

19'

Mohamed Salah

27'

J. Álvarez↳ J. Grealish

33'

Rodri

46'

K. De Bruyne↳ R. Mahrez

53'

İ. Gündoğan

70'

Roberto Firmino← Diogo Jota

70'

K. Tsimikas← A. Robertson

70'

D. Núñez← Mohamed Salah

70'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← H. Elliott

74'

J. Grealish↳ K. De Bruyne

82'

J. Milner← C. Gakpo

83'

Bernardo Silva← Rodri

89'

C. Palmer← J. Grealish

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLiverpool

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots4

2.96Expected Goals (xG)0.33

7Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots4

8On Target1

3Off Target0

6Blocked3

14Inside Box4

3Outside Box0

Passing

68%Possession32%

754Total Passes350

692Accurate Passes288

92%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5

Premier League: Manchester City 4–1 Liverpool

Manchester City beat Liverpool 4-1 in Premier League on April 1, 2023.

Goals: Mohamed Salah (17'), J. Álvarez (27'), K. De Bruyne (46'), İ. Gündoğan (53'), J. Grealish (74').

Manchester City controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City vs Liverpool — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Manchester City 4–1 Liverpool