Manchester City 2–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Liverpool

Gabriel Jesus 37'

K. De Bruyne 5'

S. Mané 46'

Diogo Jota 13'

4/10/2022

Premier League · Round 32Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Manchester City47%

×Draw24%

Liverpool29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.29

Manchester City

1.69

Liverpool

1.29

Manchester City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

2.06

creates per match

1.61

0.98

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Manchester City

2.06

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Manchester City

0.98

Liverpool

1.32

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

71%

Manchester City or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

53%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

25%

Liverpool wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

82%

Manchester City 2+ goals

50%

Manchester City 3+ goals

24%

Liverpool 1+ goals

72%

Liverpool 2+ goals

37%

Liverpool 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

61%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.98 · 34 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.06 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.69

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Manchester City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manchester City scores more

47%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

29%

Manchester City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Gabriel Jesus

Manchester City · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

K. De Bruyne↳ Bernardo Silva

13'

Diogo Jota↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

28'

Andrew Robertson

37'

Gabriel Jesus↳ João Cancelo

40'

Bernardo Silva

46'

S. Mané↳ Mohamed Salah

61'

Thiago Alcântara

64'

Raheem SterlingGoal cancelled

70'

L. Díaz← Diogo Jota

75'

R. Mahrez← R. Sterling

78'

N. Keïta← J. Henderson

83'

Fabinho

83'

J. Grealish← Gabriel Jesus

84'

Roberto Firmino← S. Mané

89'

Virgil van Dijk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLiverpool

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots6

4Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots6

5On Target4

4Off Target2

2Blocked0

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

566Total Passes468

486Accurate Passes377

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

5Offsides2