Manchester City 2–1 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Liverpool

L. Sané 72'

S. Agüero 40'

Roberto Firmino 64'

1/3/2019

Premier League · Round 21Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Manchester City47%

×Draw24%

Liverpool29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Manchester City

1.71

Liverpool

1.29

Manchester City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 32 away

2.10

creates per match

1.61

0.96

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Manchester City

2.10

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Manchester City

0.96

Liverpool

1.32

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.34scores more

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

71%

Manchester City or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

53%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

25%

Liverpool wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

82%

Manchester City 2+ goals

51%

Manchester City 3+ goals

24%

Liverpool 1+ goals

72%

Liverpool 2+ goals

37%

Liverpool 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

62%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 36 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.10 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.71

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Manchester City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manchester City scores more

47%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

29%

Manchester City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Stones

Manchester City · D

7.7

Match Events

20'

Dejan Lovren

31'

Vincent Kompany

38'

Georginio Wijnaldum

40'

S. Agüero↳ Bernardo Silva

45'

Aymeric Laporte

57'

Fabinho← J. Milner

64'

Roberto Firmino↳ A. Robertson

65'

İ. Gündoğan← David Silva

72'

L. Sané↳ R. Sterling

77'

X. Shaqiri← S. Mané

86'

K. Walker← A. Laporte

86'

D. Sturridge← G. Wijnaldum

88'

N. Otamendi← V. Kompany

89'

Bernardo Silva

90'

Ederson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLiverpool

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots7

2Corners1

12Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots7

4On Target5

4Off Target2

1Blocked0

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box0

Passing

49%Possession51%

578Total Passes583

468Accurate Passes461

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Liverpool

Manchester City beat Liverpool 2-1 in Premier League on January 3, 2019.

Goals: S. Agüero (40'), Roberto Firmino (64'), L. Sané (72').

Liverpool controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City vs Liverpool — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Liverpool