Manchester City 1–1 Everton: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Everton

R. Sterling 82'

W. Rooney 35'

8/21/2017

Premier League · Round 2Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Manchester City58%

×Draw22%

Everton20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.04

Manchester City

1.93

Everton

1.04

Manchester City creates 86% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

2.11

creates per match

1.15

0.94

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Everton

1.15

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Everton

1.75

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

80%

Manchester City or Everton

78%

Draw or Everton

42%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

34%

Everton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

85%

Manchester City 2+ goals

57%

Manchester City 3+ goals

30%

Everton 1+ goals

65%

Everton 2+ goals

28%

Everton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

74%

Everton (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Everton attack 1.15 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Manchester City scores more

58%

level

22%

Everton scores more

20%

Manchester City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

N. Otamendi

Manchester City · D

7.7

Match Events

7'

Morgan Schneiderlin

24'

Tom Davies

35'

W. Rooney↳ D. Calvert-Lewin

42'

Kyle Walker

44'

Kyle Walker

44'

Kyle Walker

46'

R. Sterling← Gabriel Jesus

61'

G. Sigurðsson← T. Davies

61'

D. Klaassen← A. Williams

65'

Danilo← J. Stones

69'

Bernardo Silva← L. Sané

78'

82'

84'

88'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterEverton

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots7

7Corners1

7Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots7

6On Target2

9Off Target5

4Blocked0

10Inside Box4

9Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

560Total Passes301

461Accurate Passes198

82%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides3