Everton 0–3 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City

İ. Gündoğan 51', 37'

E. Haaland 39'

5/14/2023

Premier League · Round 36Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Everton34%

×Draw25%

Manchester City41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.50

Everton

1.33

Manchester City

1.50

Manchester City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

1.30

creates per match

1.71

1.28

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Everton

1.30

Manchester City

1.71

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Manchester City

1.35

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Everton+0.02on par

Manchester City-0.04on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Everton or draw

59%

Everton or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

66%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

15%

Manchester City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

74%

Everton 2+ goals

38%

Everton 3+ goals

15%

Manchester City 1+ goals

78%

Manchester City 2+ goals

44%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

45%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 22 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.35 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.30 + Manchester City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manchester City attack 1.71 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Everton scores more

34%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

41%

Manchester City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

İ. Gündoğan

Manchester City · M

8.9

Match Events

37'

İ. Gündoğan↳ R. Mahrez

39'

E. Haaland↳ İ. Gündoğan

46'

N. Maupay← D. Calvert-Lewin

49'

51'

55'

56'

75'

78'

Bernardo Silva← İ. Gündoğan

78'

J. Grealish← E. Haaland

88'

K. Phillips← Rodri

90+1'

Sergio Gómez← Rúben Dias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonManchester

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots9

1.78Expected Goals (xG)0.76

8Corners6

12Fouls4

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target4

3Off Target3

1Blocked2

6Inside Box3

1Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

381Total Passes670

324Accurate Passes610

85%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0

Premier League: Everton 0–3 Manchester City

Manchester City beat Everton 3-0 in Premier League on May 14, 2023.

Goals: İ. Gündoğan (37', 51'), E. Haaland (39').

Manchester City controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.

Everton vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Everton 0–3 Manchester City