Manchester City 3–0 Brighton: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brighton

Bernardo Silva 82'

P. Foden 65'

R. Mahrez 53'

4/20/2022

Premier League · Round 30Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Manchester City51%

×Draw23%

Brighton26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.25

Manchester City

1.85

Brighton

1.25

Manchester City creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

2.08

creates per match

1.51

1.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Brighton

1.51

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Brighton

1.62

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more

Brighton-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

74%

Manchester City or Brighton

77%

Draw or Brighton

49%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

29%

Brighton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

84%

Manchester City 2+ goals

55%

Manchester City 3+ goals

28%

Brighton 1+ goals

71%

Brighton 2+ goals

36%

Brighton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

66%

Brighton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Brighton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.85

Brighton attack 1.51 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manchester City scores more

51%

level

23%

Brighton scores more

26%

Manchester City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Mahrez

Manchester City · F

8.3

Match Events

46'

Rúben Dias← N. Aké

53'

R. Mahrez

61'

A. Webster← T. Lamptey

65'

P. Foden↳ R. Mahrez

73'

J. Sarmiento← M. Caicedo

77'

O. Zinchenko← J. Stones

77'

N. Maupay← D. Welbeck

79'

Alexis Mac Allister

81'

Adam Webster

82'

Bernardo Silva↳ K. De Bruyne

83'

Gabriel Jesus← K. De Bruyne

89'

Lewis Dunk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterBrighton

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots2

7Corners4

12Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots2

5On Target1

4Off Target1

8Blocked0

9Inside Box1

8Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

667Total Passes353

586Accurate Passes260

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2