Manchester City 2–0 Brighton: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brighton

S. Agüero 65'

R. Sterling 29'

9/29/2018

Premier League · Round 7Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Manchester City52%

×Draw23%

Brighton26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.26

Manchester City

1.88

Brighton

1.26

Manchester City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

2.11

creates per match

1.58

0.94

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Brighton

1.58

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Brighton

1.66

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Brighton-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

74%

Manchester City or Brighton

77%

Draw or Brighton

48%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

29%

Brighton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

85%

Manchester City 2+ goals

56%

Manchester City 3+ goals

29%

Brighton 1+ goals

72%

Brighton 2+ goals

36%

Brighton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

67%

Brighton (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Brighton defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.88

Brighton attack 1.58 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manchester City scores more

52%

level

23%

Brighton scores more

26%

Manchester City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Sterling

Manchester City · F

9.1

Match Events

9'

Anthony Knockaert

29'

R. Sterling↳ L. Sané

42'

Shane Duffy

65'

S. Agüero↳ R. Sterling

66'

Gabriel Jesus← S. Agüero

71'

R. Mahrez← L. Sané

73'

G. Murray← J. Locadia

78'

A. Jahanbakhsh← A. Knockaert

83'

J. Izquierdo← S. March

87'

Martín Montoya

88'

P. Foden← David Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterBrighton

Overview

80%Possession20%

28Total Shots4

10Corners3

4Fouls10

Shots

28Total Shots4

8On Target1

13Off Target1

7Blocked2

19Inside Box4

9Outside Box0

Passing

80%Possession20%

850Total Passes210

789Accurate Passes137

93%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2