Manchester City 3–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Aston Villa

R. Mahrez 45+1' (pen)

İ. Gündoğan 39'

Rodri 4'

O. Watkins 61'

2/12/2023

Premier League · Round 23Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Manchester City57%

×Draw22%

Aston Villa21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.04

Manchester City

1.89

Aston Villa

1.04

Manchester City creates 82% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 31 away

2.10

creates per match

1.13

0.96

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Manchester City

2.10

Aston Villa

1.13

allows per match

Manchester City

0.96

Aston Villa

1.67

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.34scores more

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

79%

Manchester City or Aston Villa

78%

Draw or Aston Villa

43%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

33%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

85%

Manchester City 2+ goals

56%

Manchester City 3+ goals

29%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

65%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

28%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

74%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 36 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.10 + Aston Villa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Manchester City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Manchester City scores more

57%

level

22%

Aston Villa scores more

21%

Manchester City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Rodri

Manchester City · M

8.6

Match Events

4'

Rodri↳ R. Mahrez

21'

Jack GrealishPenalty cancelled

37'

Lucas Digne

39'

İ. Gündoğan↳ E. Haaland

41'

Rúben Dias

45+1'

R. MahrezPenalty

46'

M. Akanji← Rúben Dias

46'

J. Álvarez← E. Haaland

60'

J. McGinn← E. Buendía

60'

Álex Moreno← L. Bailey

60'

J. Durán← L. Digne

61'

O. Watkins↳ Douglas Luiz

63'

Ezri Konsa

69'

P. Foden← J. Grealish

76'

M. Cash← J. Ramsey

76'

Philippe Coutinho← A. Young

85'

N. Aké← R. Mahrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterAston

Overview

67%Possession33%

17Total Shots6

3.36Expected Goals (xG)0.27

8Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots6

9On Target2

3Off Target2

5Blocked2

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

620Total Passes304

558Accurate Passes247

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4