Manchester City 3–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aston Villa

İ. Gündoğan 81', 76'

Rodri 78'

Philippe Coutinho 69'

M. Cash 37'

5/22/2022

Premier League · Round 38Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Manchester City55%

×Draw23%

Aston Villa22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.07

Manchester City

1.84

Aston Villa

1.07

Manchester City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 30 away

2.07

creates per match

1.16

0.98

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Manchester City

2.07

Aston Villa

1.16

allows per match

Manchester City

0.98

Aston Villa

1.62

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.36scores more

Aston Villa+0.01on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

78%

Manchester City or Aston Villa

77%

Draw or Aston Villa

45%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

31%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

84%

Manchester City 2+ goals

55%

Manchester City 3+ goals

28%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

66%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

29%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

72%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.07 + Aston Villa defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.84

Aston Villa attack 1.16 + Manchester City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester City scores more

55%

level

23%

Aston Villa scores more

22%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

8.5

Match Events

37'

M. Cash↳ L. Digne

46'

O. Zinchenko← Fernandinho

49'

Tyrone Mings

56'

R. Sterling← R. Mahrez

68'

İ. Gündoğan← Bernardo Silva

69'

Philippe Coutinho↳ O. Watkins

72'

M. Nakamba← Philippe Coutinho

76'

İ. Gündoğan↳ R. Sterling

78'

Rodri↳ O. Zinchenko

81'

İ. Gündoğan↳ K. De Bruyne

83'

D. Ings← J. Ramsey

87'

Marvelous Nakamba

88'

A. Young← E. Buendía

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterAston

Overview

72%Possession28%

24Total Shots4

13Corners1

5Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots4

5On Target2

10Off Target1

9Blocked1

18Inside Box3

6Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

601Total Passes243

529Accurate Passes163

88%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2