Manchester City 3–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.07

Manchester City

1.83

Aston Villa

1.07

Manchester City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

2.08

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Aston Villa

1.58

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

78%

Manchester City or Aston Villa

77%

Draw or Aston Villa

45%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

31%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

84%

Manchester City 2+ goals

54%

Manchester City 3+ goals

28%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

66%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

29%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

71%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.58 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester City scores more

55%

level

23%

Aston Villa scores more

22%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

S. Agüero

46'

Fernandinho← Y. Touré

57'

J. Milner← F. Lampard

66'

A. Kolarov

68'

C. N'Zogbia← A. Westwood

68'

83'

85'

87'

89'

Fernandinho↳ A. Kolarov

Manchester

Aston

1

4

5

18

24

⚽

Sánchez

16

Delph

15

▼

Westwood

8

⚽

Cleverley

7

▼

40

20

1

26

5

11

⚽A

Kolarov

20

Mangala

18

▼

Lampard

21

Silva

42

▼

Touré

15

Navas

6

Fernando

16

⚽

▼

Agüero

46'▲Fernandinho←▼Y. Touré

57'▲J. Milner←▼F. Lampard

83'▲W. Bony←▼S. Agüero

Manchester City substitutes

25Fernandinho7Milner14Bony3Sagna10Džeko13Caballero38Boyata

68'▲C. N'Zogbia←▼A. Westwood

87'▲M. Lowton←▼L. Bacuna

Aston Villa substitutes

28N'Zogbia34Lowton10Weimann12Cole14Senderos23Cissokho31Given