Manchester City U19 2–2 Dinamo Zagreb U19

Manchester City U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb U19

Adrian Bernabe 45+1'

T. Doyle 18'

L. Šipoš 80', 27'

10/1/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manchester City U1960%

×Draw20%

Dinamo Zagreb U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester City U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.26

Manchester City U19

2.26

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.26

Manchester City U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

2.61

creates per match

0.91

1.61

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Manchester City U19

2.61

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Manchester City U19

1.61

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Manchester City U19 or draw

79%

Manchester City U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

80%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

40%

Winning margin

Manchester City U19 wins by 2+

37%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester City U19 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City U19 2+ goals

66%

Manchester City U19 3+ goals

39%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Manchester City U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City U19 at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City U19 attack 2.61 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.26

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Manchester City U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manchester City U19 scores more

60%

level

20%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

21%

Manchester City U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manchester City U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Doyle

27'

L. Šipoš↳ A. Marin

45+1'

Adrian Bernabe

46'

F. Dele-Bashiru← A. Dionkou

57'

J. Vasilj← B. Karrica

62'

Zoubdi← M. Rogers

80'

L. Šipoš↳ J. Vasilj

81'

V. Radonja← R. Jurišić

85'

I. Svržnjak← L. Šipoš

88'

L. Fiorini← Adrian Bernabe

Manchester

Dinamo

1

Josipović

5

Šutalo

2

Hrvoj

3

▼

4

10

6

8

7

A

Marin

9

⚽2

▼

Šipoš

11

▼

1

5

4

2

▼

Dionkou

6

Pozo

10

⚽

Doyle

3

McDonald

8

⚽

▼

Bernabe

9

Poveda-Oc

11

▼

Rogers

7

Braaf

Manager: P. Harsley

46'▲F. Dele-Bashiru←▼A. Dionkou

62'▲Zoubdi←▼M. Rogers

88'▲L. Fiorini←▼Adrian Bernabe

Manchester City U19 substitutes

15Dele-Bashiru18Zoubdi16Fiorini14Ogunby12Burns13Trafford17Knight

Manager: I. Jovičević

57'▲J. Vasilj←▼B. Karrica

81'▲V. Radonja←▼R. Jurišić

85'▲I. Svržnjak←▼L. Šipoš

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

17Vasilj13Radonja18Svržnjak16Stranput14Vukasović12Krkalic15Bičanić

Match Recap: Manchester City U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19

Manchester City U19 and Dinamo Zagreb U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA Youth League on October 1, 2019.

Goals: T. Doyle (18'), L. Šipoš (27', 80'), Adrian Bernabe (45+1').

The match was played at Academy Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Manchester City U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19